What Does EPA's Finding that Greenhouse Gas Emissions Endanger Public Health and the Environment Mean to Business?

When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued its final finding that emission of six greenhouse gases endangered the public’s health and the environment because of their effect on climate change, the business community wondered how it should respond to the news.  At first glance, there seems to be blinding maze of legal and policy issues that will affect business decisions.  Although far from clear, there is a way out of the maze – although businesses with significant greenhouse gas emissions should be prepared to tackle the important issues that the Endangerment Finding raises.

Businesses Need to Take a Deep Breath (Irony Intended)

The road to the endangerment finding began in 2007, when the U.S. Supreme Court decided in Massachusetts v. EPA that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases constituted “air pollutants” under the Clean Air Act.  To most savvy businessmen this was a clear signal to start planning how their businesses would cope with the establishment of limits on emission of greenhouse gases.  Although the Bush Administration EPA successfully sat on the issue, when the Obama Administration took office, most companies recognized that an endangerment finding would top the EPA’s list of major environmental actions.  Thus, EPA’s announcement this past April of its proposed finding and its announcement of the final endangerment finding should have come as no surprise to anyone who has been monitoring this issue.

The key thing for businesses to remember is that the endangerment finding by itself does not regulate the emission of greenhouse gases from any source, large or small.  That being said, it does have a direct impact on mobile sources (because of section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act), with the EPA planning on issuing its final “light-duty vehicle” greenhouse gas emissions rule some time in Spring 2010.

When the light-duty vehicle rule is finalized, the GHGs subject to regulation under that rule (i.e., the six greenhouse gases identified in the Endangerment Finding) would become immediately subject to regulation under the PSD program, meaning that from that point forward, prior to constructing any new major source or major modifications that would increase GHGs, a source owner would need to apply for, and a permitting authority would need to issue, a permit under the PSD program that addresses these increases. Similarly, for the Title V operating permit program, it would mean that any new or existing source exceeding the major source applicability level for those regulated GHGs, if it did not have a title V permit already, would have 1 year to submit a title V permit application.

Recognizing this incidental effect, the EPA proposed a “tailoring rule” on September 30, 2009.  In the Tailoring Rule, EPA proposed to set a new threshold of 25,000 metric tons of GHG emissions to define when Clean Air Act permits under the New Source Review and Title V operating permits programs would be required.  The proposed thresholds would “tailor” these permit programs to limit which facilities would be required to obtain permits and would cover nearly 70 percent of the nation’s largest stationary source GHG emitters—including power plants, refineries, and cement production facilities, while shielding small businesses and farms from permitting requirements. Thus, businesses that emit less than 25,000 metric tons of GHG and businesses that currently have a Title V operating permit will not, for the most part, be covered by the Tailoring Rule.

Should Businesses Make Voluntary Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

So what should companies do in the meantime?

Many businesses have been evaluating their carbon footprint over the past few years (particularly since the Massachusetts v. EPA decision) and have been looking at ways to reduce GHG emissions. For many companies energy is a cost, and in some cases, greenhouse gases may be a lost resource.  By increasing efficiency, costs are reduced and the business operates better.  For example, the aviation industry loves to trumpet how it is getting “greener,” because it is reducing GHG emissions.  However, that greening has come about by reducing fuel consumption, which became a necessity when fuel prices spiked because fuel costs represent a huge percentage of the aviation industry’s costs.  The result?  Increased fuel efficiency=fewer emissions=reduction in emissions of GHG, with a reduction in fuel costs to top it off.  Moreover, there are ways that would reduce GHG emissions and accrue tax benefits, such as cogeneration or combined heating power.  These types of programs that reduce GHG emissions and accrue a direct benefit to the company’s bottom line should be pursued regardless of the regulatory environment.  The caveat would be that businesses should check in with their environmental law attorney to see if there are any carbon banks or carbon credit systems set up that they could participate in order to get “credit” for any reduction in GHG emissions.

Outside of those programs, however, caution should be taken with respect to taking on projects that would reduce GHG emissions, but represent a net cost to the business.  Many businesses are taking a “wait and see” attitude, relying on their environmental law attorneys to monitor developments, report to them about those developments and assist them in develop strategies and manage the risk.  It is only when the regulatory regime is in place that businesses can assess what changes need to be made to their processes and to their equipment in order to comply with the regulations.  Particularly when the costs to comply are substantial, businesses are going to want to wait until the requirements become fixed before they undertake a far-reaching GHG emission reduction program.

Congressional Outlook:  Who Knows What They Are Up To?

The progress in Congress on new Climate Change legislation is an additional reason for businesses to sit tight.  Since Monday’s Endangerment Finding, most business and industry groups have stated that they would much prefer either one of the bills currently being considered in Congress to regulation by the EPA.  The primary reason for this is the fact that both the Boxer-Kerry bill and the Waxman-Markey bill have “cap-and-trade” provisions, which, although excoriated by the Republicans, are much better for businesses than an EPA-centric “command-and-control” regulatory regime.  A good example of this change of heart is Sen. Mark Pryor (D.Ark.), who was reported as being more willing to consider a cap-and-trade proposal now that the EPA has issued its endangerment finding.

At the same time, the failure to come up with a bill for the President’s approval prior to the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, the release of the hacked e-mails from East Anglia University’s Climate Research Unit, and the inexorable march of time have led to the Senate going back to the beginning.  Indeed, Sens. Kerry, Lieberman and Graham have put forth a new outline for Climate Change legislation. Thus, it is unlikely that Congress will have anything to offer until after the EPA has finalized the light-duty vehicle regulations, and perhaps after the Tailoring Rule is finalized.

Conclusion: Now Is The Time for Self-Assessment

The upshot of the Endangerment Finding and, for that matter, EPA’s regulation of GHG emissions, is that now would be a good time for businesses to assess just how much GHG emissions they produce.  The potential impact of EPA’s regulation of GHG emissions will be felt by companies that have not been traditionally required to examine their exposure to Clean Air Act regulation.  To state that there is not much clarity as which companies will be affected by the EPA’s Tailoring Rule, for example, is an understatement.  Even the EPA recognizes in its rule that it will need to fine tune it over the years so that does what it is supposed to do.  Thus, the more businesses know about their operations and the amount of GHG they emit, they better they will be able to assess their place in just about any scenario that may come up.

October 15, 2009 - Aviation and Airport Development Updates

A summary review of Aviation and Airport Development related news and information that was made public during the past week.  These were all first posted, in abbreviated form, on http://twitter.com/smtaber. Trisha Ton-Nu also contributed to this post.

FAA Bill Could Pass This Year. --- Adrian Schofield, Aviation Week, October 7, 2009

A staff member from the Senate aviation subcommittee believes that the Federal Aviation Administration reauthorization bill can be finished this year, though the Senate must have its bill approved by November to leave enough time for a House/Senate conference on the bill. The Commerce Committee has approved the bulk of the bill, but the Finance Committee has yet to contribute its proposals on tax changes, despite “tremendous pressure” from both lobbyists and Senate leadership to complete its work. There are some big differences to be resolved between the House and Senate bills, but none involve FAA funding and the houses are “basically aligned” on the aviation measures.

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DOT Issues Lithium Battery Safety Advisory to Increase Aviation Industry Awareness. --- Department of Transportation, October 7, 2009

 

The Department of Transportation issued a safety advisory targeting shippers and carriers responsible for compliance with hazardous materials regulations covering both passenger and cargo aircraft. The advisory highlighted recent aviation incidents involving lithium batteries and outlined the current regulatory requirements for their safe transportation. It also included an announcement that both the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration and Federal Aviation Administration would be stepping up enforcement of safety standards. Since 1991 more than 40 air transport-related incidents involving lithium batteries and devices powered by lithium batteries have been identified, many directly related to the lack of awareness of the regulations, risks, and required safety measures applicable to the shipment of lithium batteries.

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Controllers: FAA’s Computers Prone to Problems. --- Joan Lowy, Associated Press, October 7, 2009

 

The Federal Aviation Administration’s new computer system was unsuccessfully deployed at a Salt Lake City regional air traffic control center, raising doubts about whether it can be operational 15 months from now when the current computers must be replaced. The new ERAM (En Route Automation Modernization) system is based on satellite technology, whereas the current HOST system uses World War II-era radar technology and is a unique computer language that fewer technicians today can understand. In Salt Lake City the new system misidentified planes several times and managers in SaltLake refused to deploy it again, choosing to safely transition back to the HOST system instead.

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Report Warns Airline Delays Will Increase. --- Bruce Siceloff, Charlotte Observer, October 8, 2009

In a newly released report, the Brookings Institution warns that there will be more delayed flights and longer delays as the U.S. economy recovers and airports get busier in the coming months. The report suggested that federal airport spending would be more beneficial for travelers if it were focused on increasing capacity at the most congested metropolitan airports instead of being scattered across the U.S., and that the Obama administration’s planned high-speed rail network could cut heavy traffic on air corridors of less than 500 miles, which account for half of the nation’s flights.

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FAA Announces Serious Runway Incursions Down by 50 Percent. --- FAA Press Release, October 8, 2009

Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Randy Babbitt announced that serious runway incursions were down 50 percent for the most recent 12-month period, compared to the previous year. There were only 12 serious incursions in fiscal year 2009 with only 2 involving commercial carriers, while there were 25 such events in fiscal year 2008 with 9 involving commercial carriers. Administrator Babbitt praised the progress made since the FAA’s Runway Safety “Call to Action” meeting two years ago, but stated that there is still much work to be done to continue reducing the potential risk of collisions on runways.

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FAA Fears Wetlands Work Near NJ Airport. --- Associated Press, October 9, 2009

 

Federal Aviation Administration officials fear that a wildlife restoration project in the Richard P. Kane Natural Area could create a threat to public safety at nearby TeterboroAirport in New Jersey. TeterboroAirport averaged five bird strikes per 10,000 landings and departures last year, more than double the rate at Newark Liberty International and LaGuardiaAirports, but an airport wildlife biologist for the U.S. Agriculture Department says a busy airport and abundant bird population can coexist if properly managed.

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Getting Air Traffic Under Control. --- Bryan Walsh, Time, October 10, 2009

 

Delays and inefficiencies in air travel are largely due to an outdated traffic-control system that relies on slow, ground-based radar stations and repetitive communication, and the inefficiencies also mean fuel is wasted and unnecessary carbon dioxide emitted at a time when the air-travel industry is coming under scrutiny for its role in climate change. The air-travel industry will be under increasing pressure to cut its emissions or pay a carbon tax, and while the best immediate opportunity may be to improve fuel efficiency, the best way to increase fuel efficiency is to update the current air-traffic control system using NextGen, the Federal Aviation Administration’s long-term plan to replace the current system with one using satellites and a global positioning system.

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Airlines Set Own Emission Targets...but is fuel efficiency enough? --- Associated Press, October 10, 2009 and Steven Taber, Aviation & Airport Development Law, September 24, 2009

Members of the International Air Transport Association pledged to improve fuel efficiency by 1.5 percent a year until 2020 and called on governments worldwide to provide incentives to speed biofuel development.

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In the short run, however, technological innovations like those that would reduce emissions will not be available for implementation in the near future.

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It Is Official! The FAA Rescinds Slot Auction Rule. --- Steven Taber, Aviation & Airport Development Law, October 10, 2009

 

The Federal Aviation Administration officially rescinded its plan to enact mandatory slot auctions on LaGuardia, John F. Kennedy, and Newark airports. In 2008 final rules were published that established procedures to address congestion in the New York City area by assigning slots at the airports, assigning the majority of slots to existing operators, and creating a market by annually auctioning off a limited number of slots in each of the first five years of the rule. The rules were the subject of much litigation and controversy ever since they were first proposed by the Bush Administration, but have now been rescinded partly because of the Omnibus Appropriations Act, and the state of the economy in general.

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Fly-By-Night Story on Airport Funds Goes Off Course. --- Chuck Sweeny, Rockford Register Star, October 10, 2009

 

A Wall Street Journal story criticizing ChicagoRockfordInternationalAirport and other airports for receiving Federal Aviation Administration grants for low-priority projects is being slammed itself. Rockford International Airport Authority Chairman Mike Dunn retorts that Rockford International is a world-class facility that helps relieve congestion at O’Hare International Airport, and is one of just three airports in Illinois authorized to land flights from foreign countries. It is the port of re-entry for thousands of U.S. military personnel en route from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars to their home bases in the U.S., and will likely see the number of passengers it serves grow as the economy improves. Freight and passenger service improvements at the airport have helped generate economic development and will prepare Rockford International for its future role as a “vital part” of the Chicagoland aviation system.

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Report Says Philadelphia Air Traffic Exceeds U.S. Average. --- Linda Lloyd, The Philadelphia Inquirer, October 9, 2009

 

Passenger traffic at Philadelphia International Airport grew 45 percent in the last decade, nearly three times the national average for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, but 73.4 percent of flights arrived on time during fiscal year 2009, below the national average of 78.4 percent. The combined Philadelphia-New York airspace contributes to 75 percent of delays nationally and affects business travelers everywhere.

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Non-Radar Air-Traffic System Debuts. --- Alan Levin, USA Today, October 12, 2009

 

A new system monitoring air traffic above the Rockies was recently implemented in Colorado. Using 20 sensors clustered around four airports within the Rockies, the sensors monitor radio broadcasts from planes and computers can determine the plane’s location by measuring minute differences in the time it takes for broadcasts to reach the various sensors. The system uses similar technology to the satellite-based system the Federal Aviation Administration is installing nationwide to replace radar, and is a sign that the technology underpinning the satellite system can work.

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Key House Members Work Against User Fees. --- Kerry Lynch and Adrian Schofield, Aviation Week, October 12, 2009

 

House aviation subcommittee chairman Jerry Costello and Thomas Petri have begun a lobbying effort against potential aviation user fee proposals for the fiscal year 2011 budget. In a letter being circulated within the House, Costello and Petri state that they believe user fees will place an undue administrative burden and associated costs on system users and cited previous House opposition in both the 110th and 111th Congresses to proposals of using user fees to finance the Federal Aviation Administration.

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ATM Providers Welcome ICAO Declaration, WantStates to Take More Action

 

The Civil Air Navigation Services Organization commended the achievements of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s High Level Meeting on International Aviation but expressed disappointment that no actions were recommended for member states to undertake themselves to assist the aviation industry in meeting its environmental goals. CANSO Secretary General Alexander ter Kuile identified four steps that ICAO nations could immediately take to deliver an extra 0.5% of fuel efficiency improvement, on top of ICAO’s recommended target of 1.5% improvement through 2020 with carbon-neutral growth thereafter.

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San Francisco Airport, Chevron, and EPA Agree to $1 million in Environmental Improvements at InternationalAirport.

SFO Fuel, Chevron, and the Environmental Protection Agency entered into agreements to resolve violations of the Clean Water Act at a large jet fuel storage facility located at San FranciscoInternationalAirport. SFO Fuel representatives self-reported inadequate secondary containment capacity--which could result in a catastrophic spill into San FranciscoBay--and the EPA investigated and agreed. SFO Fuel, which leases the facility, and Chevron, which operates the facility, have adjusted their operations at the tank farm with alarms and automatic shut-off valves to reduce the volume that is present in the tanks until the facility is able to increase the size of the secondary containment area. The agreements require the facility to come into full compliance by next year, and SFO Fuel and Chevron agreed to pay a penalty of $177,500.

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FAA Proposes $3.8 Million Penalty Against United Airlines. --- FAA Press Release, October 14, 2009

 

The Federal Aviation Administration is proposing a $3.8 million penalty against United Airlines for allegedly operating one of its Boeing 737 aircraft on more than 200 flights after the carrier violated its own maintenance procedures on one of the plane’s engines. Between February 10 and April 28, 2008 the aircraft was flown on more than 200 revenue flights in a less-than-airworthy condition.

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FAA Proposes $5.6 Million Civil Penalty for US Airways, Inc. --- FAA Press Release, October 14, 2009 andUS Airways Responds. --- US Airways Press Release, October 14, 2009

 

The Federal Aviation Administration proposed a $5.4 million penalty against US Airways, Inc. for allegedly operating 8 aircraft on a total of 1,647 flights between October 2008 and January 2009 that were not in compliance with certain Airworthiness Directives or the airline’s maintenance program.

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US Airways issued a statement that it experienced challenges during the integration of maintenance systems and processes on flights that occurred in that time period, and is working with the FAA to investigate and correct any discrepancies and achieve a resolution of the FAA’s civil penalty proposal.

Why the Airports and the Aviation Industry Need to Be Concerned About Climate Change: Part One, Facts about Aviation and Climate Change

I.        Introduction

In the grand scheme of things, aviation may not represent a huge source of concern with respect to climate change. But neither should the aviation industry (airports included) ignore the fact that aviation does contribute to climate change not only through the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) but also through the emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulfate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The intent of this series of articles is to examine the effect aviation has on climate change, outline the regulatory and legal framework that is developing, and to suggest avenues for the aviation industry to pursue in the future.  The first challenge is to clear up some misconceptions about aviation and climate change so that we can move forward with accurate and up-to-date information.

II.      Some Facts About Aviation and Climate Change

In Aviation and Climate Change: the Views of Aviation Industry Stakeholders, the aviation industry makes several claims regarding the impact aviation has on climate change. First, the industry claims that “over the past four decades, we have improved aircraft fuel efficiency by over 70 percent, resulting in tremendous savings.” As a result, the industry continues, “given the significance of fuel costs to the economic viability of our industry, our economic and environmental goals converge.” Second, the industry claims that “because of our aggressive pursuit of greater fuel efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aviation constitute only a very small part of total U.S. GHGs, less than 3 percent.” However, in order to assist the industry in its obligation “to further limit aviation’s greenhouse gas footprint even as aviation grows to meet rising demand for transportation around the world,” those claims of progress need to come under a microscope.

        A.            Contribution of Aviation to Climate Change Remains Subject to Debate

First, how much aviation contributes to climate change is still up to debate. Several governmental and aviation industry organizations have been reporting a “less than 3%” number for quite some time while environmental groups, particularly in Europe, claim that the percentage is anywhere from 5 to 9%. In examining the claims and counterclaims concerning emissions of GHG, one has to be very careful about the language and the metrics used in determining the “impact” any given industry will have on “climate change.” Many reports and studies focus only on CO2, since the amount of CO2 produced both naturally and by humans is overwhelming. However, as just about everyone knows by now, there are other gases and anthropogenic actions that exacerbate climate change. For example, the U.S. EPA recently proposed regulations that would require major emitters of six “greenhouse gases” to report their emissions to the EPA on an annual basis. Those six greenhouse gases are: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorochemicals (PFCs), and other fluorinated 20 gases (e.g., nitrogen trifluoride and hydrofluorinated ethers (HFEs)). It also should be kept in mind when discussing climate change, especially with respect to aviation, that water vapor is estimate contribute anywhere from 36% to 72% of the greenhouse effect. This is important because the radiative forcing effect of cirrus cloud formation from the aircraft is a significant contributor to the greenhouse effect. As pointed out above, it is generally accepted that for aviation the GHGs of concern are CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulfate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness.

 

 

The predominance of CO2 as the GHG of concern leads to another issue: measurement of GHG. Many reports state their findings in terms of “CO2e,” or CO2 equivalent. Carbon dioxide equivalency is a quantity that describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gas, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential (GWP), when measured over a specified timescale (generally, 100 years). For example, the generally accepted GWP for methane over 100 years is 25 and for nitrous oxide 298. This means that emissions of 1 million metric tons of methane and nitrous oxide, respectively, is equivalent to emissions of 25 and 298 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. This article will keep the convention of designating GHG other than CO2 in terms of “CO2e.”

Most reports and studies begin with the groundbreaking work of the United Nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which, in 1999 estimated that, based on earlier data, fuel combustion for aviation contributes approximately 2% to the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventory, and, if left unmitigated, this could grow to as much as 4% by 2050. Despite the age of the data, the 2% number has been used consistently throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) in a 2006 press release relied on IPCC report by stating that “[a]ir transport contributes a small part of global CO2 emissions – 2%.” IATA press release , 2nd Aviation Environment Summit. Even as recently as September, 2009, the Transportation Research Circular of the Transportation Research Board fudges the issue by stating in the section about climate change and greenhouse gases that “fuel combustion for aviation contributes approximately 2% to the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventory.” What these estimates leave aside is the fact that CO2 emissions are only one facet of the greenhouse gas equation. 

The aviation industry tried to correct this in its paper Aviation and Climate Change: Views of Aviation Industry Stakeholders, published in February, 2009, by stating that “greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aviation constitute only a very small part of total U.S. GHGs, less than 3 percent.” However, the report that the paper cites to, the U.S. EPA’s Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006 (April 15, 2008) (2008 EPA Inventory), only mentions emissions of CO2 in its discussion of its inventory of greenhouse gases in the creation of energy. See, 2008 EPA Inventory, Chapter 3. Moreover, the EPA only examined the aviation sector’s combustion of fossil fuel, and did not, for example, take into account the radiative forcing effect of cirrus cloud formation has on climate change. When the EPA published its next inventory, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007, (March 2009) (2009 EPA Inventory), the contribution of aviation to carbon dioxide emissions increased. It estimated that when international fuels were included, domestic and international commercial, military, and general aviation flights represented about 3.4 percent of the total emissions of CO2 in United States. 

There is no question that the emission of CO2, and, for that matter, the combustion of fossil fuels, does not tell the whole story with respect to aviation. However, there are relatively few studies that focus solely on aviation and examine the effects of all GHGs and not just CO2. In 2005, Robert Sausen and a group of climate scientists published their article Aviation Radiative Forcing in 2000: An Update on IPCC (1999) (Sausen 2005). That article concluded that when NOx emissions, contrails and cirrus clouds are added into the mix, aviation’s impact on climate change is about 2 to 5 greater than that of CO2 alone worldwide. This would mean that aviation would have an impact on climate change in the range of 4% to 10% when all aspects of emissions of GHG and other radiative forcing factors are taken into account. These numbers were updated in a July, 2009, article Aviation and Global Climate Change in the 21st Century (Lee et al., 2009) which appeared in the periodical Atmospheric Environment. The authors, a group of atmospheric scientists, concluded that when aviation-induced cirrus radiative forcing is included, aviation represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic “radiative forcing of climate.” While these studies are not United States specific, as the EPA inventories are, since these studies consider all GHGs emitted by aviation (not just carbon dioxide), are focused entirely on the climate effect of aviation, and are based more recent data, the conclusion that aviation contributes close to 5% of climate change is more accurate than the “under 2%” used by many in the aviation industry.

B.            Claims of More Fuel Efficient Aircraft Are a Little Exaggerated

If one were to rely solely on the aviation industry’s press releases, one could come to the conclusion that the aviation industry is doing its part to fight climate change by virtue of the fact that all aircraft have become more fuel efficient. In the aviation industry paper Aviation and Climate Change: The Views of Aviation Industry Stakeholders they state that “[o]ver the past four decades, we have improved aircraft fuel efficiency by over 70 percent, resulting in tremendous GHG savings.” February 2009, citing International Civil Aviation Organization, Environmental Report 2007, p. 107.   This is also the position that the International Air Transport Association has taken in its publications.   For example, in a press release regarding the Second Aviation and Environment Summit in 2005 IATA claimed that “Aircraft entering today’s fleets are 70% more fuel efficient than they were 40 years ago.” Likewise, the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) website, www.atag.org states that “[t]oday’s world fleet is about 70% more fuel efficient than they were 40 years ago.” Seventy percent is also the number used by IATA for the amount of reduction of CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer. Aviation Environment Summit conclusions, 2005 (“Over the past 40 years, the commercial aviation industry has made tremendous progress in . . . reducing CO2 emissions per passenger kilometer (by 70%) and in improving fuel efficiency”). As recently as May 6, 2008, Douglas Lavin, Regional Vice President of North America for IATA testified before the U.S. House Subcommittee on on Aviation that “[o]ver the last forty years, the commercial airline industry . . . improved its fuel efficiency by 75%, leading to a similar reduction in CO2.” The improvement in fuel efficiency is at the heart of the industry’s proposals for meeting climate change challenges.

All of these statements, however, are based, in part, on the IPCC’s 1999 report, Special Report on Aviation and the Global Atmosphere. What one will note in reviewing the 1999 report is that it compares current jets with jets of the early 1960s. It does not, however, compare jets to piston engine aircraft. If they did that, a 2005 study from the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratory (NLR), which uses the IPCC data, concludes that aircraft have not made any progress in terms of fuel efficiency. “If one takes new aircraft from the early fifties (i.e. the last piston-engine aircraft) as the baseline, it shows that these last long-haul piston-powered airliners were as fuel-efficient as today’s average turbojet aircraft.” Fuel Efficiency of Commercial Aircraft: An Overview of Historical and Future Trends, NLR 2005, p.18. The GAO picked up on this dichotomy in its June, 2009, report Aviation and Climate Change GAO-09-554, p.4, fn. 5  noting that “some aircraft available in the 1950s were about equally as fuel efficient as jets currently available today.”

The Dutch report goes further and claims that even the report of 70% increase in the efficiency of jet engines from the early 60’s until the present may be overstated. Instead, the report claims, the fuel efficiency savings is closer to 55%. “If one takes new aircraft from the early sixties (i.e. the first jets) as the baseline (as presented in the IPCC report), an improvement of 55% is found rather than the 70% presented in the IPCC report.” NLR 2005, p. 18.   The Dutch report explains that main reason for this difference “is the different choice of baseline aircraft (B707 instead of DH Comet 4). The IPCC reference aircraft – the DH Comet 4 – has a rather atypical (i.e. very low) energy efficiency and only a very limited number were in operation. Further, the difference between the old and new aircraft chosen for the micro analysis is somewhat less than given by the IPCC.” NLR 2005, p,18. Thus, reliance on increases in fuel efficiency may not be an effective method to compensate for the effect that aviation has on climate change.

The industry reliance on innovation in creating more fuel efficient engines and aircraft, however, may be misplaced. Although recent innovations in engine and airframe design may eventually result in a more fuel efficient fleet of aircraft, they may not be sufficient to carry the industry forward to meet increasing demands on aviation to cut GHG emissions, at least in the short run. The GAO in its recent report concluded:

While airlines currently rely on a range of improvements, such as fuel-efficient engines, to reduce emissions, some of which may have limited potential to generate future reductions, experts we surveyed expect a number of additional technological, operational, and alternative fuel improvements to help reduce aircraft emissions in the future. However, according to experts we interviewed, some technologies, such as advanced airframes, have potential, but may be years away from being available, and developing and adopting them is likely to be costly. In addition, according to some experts we interviewed, incentives for industry to research and adopt low-emissions technologies will be dependent to some extent on the level and stability of fuel prices. Finally, given expected growth of commercial aviation as forecasted by IPCC, even if many of these improvements are adopted, it appears unlikely they would greatly reduce emissions by 2050.

GAO 2009, p.1. Over the short run, then, (i.e., between now and 2050) increases in fuel efficiency cannot be relied upon for decreases in GHG emissions. This was also the conclusion of the authors of Aviation and Global Climate Change in the 21st Century (2009). They concluded that “[a]n examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies.” Despite the aviation industry’s claims of increased fuel efficiency and its belief that reducing GHG emissions makes economic sense, it may very well be that the reductions necessary to achieve the goals currently under discussion will not be possible.

Moreover, there are distinct trade-offs between fuel efficiency that may not necessarily reduce emission of elements that cause climate change. As Mahmood Manzoor, a Senior Specialist with Messier-Dowty, Inc., points out in his article Sustainable Development – A Major Challenge to the Aviation Industry (Manzoor 2009):

Over the past 40 years, the aviation industry has made tremendous progress in improving fuel consumption (by 70%) and reducing gaseous emissions of CO and hydrocarbons by 50% and 90% respectively. However, the high combustion temperatures and pressures of aircraft engines tend to increase the production of particulate matter and NOx [both of which contribute to climate change].

Manzoor, § 4.2. Resolving this dilemma has proven to be a nettlesome problem for the industry. Mahmood Manzoor continues:

Environmental trade-offs between NOx and other emissions, noise and CO2 that are inherent in aircraft and engine design, continue to be discussed in detail within CAEP [Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection]. The low emissions TALON II™ combustor reduced NOx by over 25%, but at the expense of an increase in smoke from 30% to 93% of the ICAO [International Civil Aviation Organization] standard. Similarly, a trade-off for a Dual Annular Combustor (DAC) where NOx and smoke were reduced by approximately 30% and 67% respectively while hydrocarbons and CO increased by 15% and 130%. . . . All trade-offs are important, but with the emphasis on minimizing fuel burn (therefore CO2) and reducing noise, manufacturers are being forced to optimize engine design within a narrow physical design space.

Manzoor, § 4.3. The result is that there is not a direct correlation between an increase in fuel efficiency and decrease in the impact of climate change. Fuel efficient engines, operating at higher temperatures at high altitudes could create more of an impact on climate change even if they are emitting less CO2.

 

C.            Aviation is More “Climate Intensive” Than Previously Thought

 

As a corollary to the previous section, the aviation industry has long claimed that it is the least “climate intensive” of all of the transportation sectors. That is, on “liter per passenger kilometer,” or “gallon per passenger mile,” modern aircraft are more “climate-friendly” than cars, trucks, buses and even high-speed trains. IATA trumpets this fact on its website: “modern aircraft achieve fuel efficiencies of 3.5 litres per 100 passenger km [approximately 78 passenger miles per US gallon] . . . The A380 and B787 are aiming for 3 litres per 100 passenger km – better than a compact car!” http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/environment/fuel_efficiency.htm; see also, Airbus A380 website  http://events.airbus.com/product/a380_backgrounder.asp (“The green giant, more fuel-efficient than your car”).

Environmental groups, on the other hand claim that Aviation is between two and ten times more climate-intensive than surface transportation. They claim that the aviation industry data ignore four crucial factors:

  1. The figure of 3 or 3.5 liters per 100 passenger kilometer assume a full aircraft, i.e., a load factor of 100%. Thus, the number is representative of “aircraft seat” rather than “passenger.”
  2. The occupancy rate of cars (and trucks) at distance competing with aircraft (i.e., long hauls) is higher than the average occupancy rate of 1.6 that is frequently used when assessing the climate impact of cars.
  3. The figure of 3 to 3.5 liters per 100 seat kilometers applies to long-haul flights with large aircraft. Aircraft that do indeed compete with surface transport are smaller and fly shorter distances and are hence less efficient than 3.5 liters per 100 seat kilometers.
  4. The climate impact of non-CO2 emissions is ignored. Because of the effects of NOx, contrails and cirrus clouds at high altitude, a liter of fuel burnt in an aircraft at such altitudes has a greater climate impact than a liter burnt by surface transportation.

With load factors between 70% to 80% currently, the actual amount “per passenger” will be higher than the 3 to 3.5 liters per 100 passenger kilometer. The GAO avoided this trap by showing how modern aircraft fuel efficiency has increased on a “available seat miles per gallon.” As a result, the GAO’s report shows the current efficiency to be at 58 gallons per available seat mile, which is significantly lower than the 78 gallons per available seat mile reported by the IATA.

Taking the above factors into consideration, a CE Delft report To Shift or Not to Shift, That’s the Question: The Environmental Performance of the Principal Modes of Freight and Passenger Transport in the Policy-Making Context concluded that aviation performs three to ten times worse in terms of climate impact than cars on competing distances, and some two to ten times worse than high-speed trains. Likewise, when one examines aviation as a freight hauling industry, it does not do any better when compared to surface modes of transportation. The study External Costs of Transport (INFRAS/IWW 2004) showed that when it comes to freight transport, aviation is even worsein terms of emissions than passenger transport. The external costs of aircraft-related climate change are approximately ten times greater than for trucks, the second worst mode. Although none of these reports can be said to be the definitive word on whether aviation is more or less climate intensive than surface transportation, it does highlight the fact that aviation is probably more climate intensive than what was thought.

 

I.        Conclusion: Policy and Legal Implications

So what are the policy and legal implications of these facts? First and foremost, it is evident that aviation plays a larger role in climate change than most in the aviation industry would like to admit. This means that now is not the time for complacency or resting on illusory laurels. If aviation is not to be left behind by the auto and truck industry as well as shipping, it needs to take action sooner rather than later to control its impact on climate change. Second, these facts indicate that, at least in the short run, technological innovations will not noticeably affect the impact that aviation has on climate change. As both the GAO and Lee et al. pointed out, although the aviation industry is making technological advances that will reduce emissions that create climate change, these advances will not be available for implementation in the near future. Third, airports cannot walk away from issues surrounding the climate change impact created by aircraft. Although according to a 2006 Seattle-Tacoma International Airport greenhouse gas inventory 90% of total CO2 emissions associated with that airport were form aircraft operating above 3,000 feet, the airport is still responsible for those emissions. Using simple “but for” logic, if it were not for Seattle-Tacoma Airport, those airplanes would not be landing there, therefore, the airport should take responsibility for all incoming flights.

 

EPA Proposes Airport Deicing Effluent Guidelines

EPA Administrator signed a Notice on August 17, 2009, proposing Airport Deicing Effluent Guidelines. In that Notice, EPA is proposing "technology-based effluent standards for discharges from airport deicing operations."  Effluent guidelines and new source performance standards are technology-based regulations that are developed by EPA for a category of dischargers. In this case, the deicing effluent guidelines are based on the performance of control and treatment technologies.

In general, the regulations would apply to "wastewater associated with the deicing of aircraft and airfield pavement at primary commercial airports."  (Although various industry groups have objected to using the term "wastewater" to describe the deicing effluent, since that is the term that the EPA uses in the proposed rule, that is the term used in this article).  The proposed regulations would affect airports that

  1. conduct aircraft deicing operations,
  2. have 1,000 or more annual jet departures, and
  3. 10,000 or more total annual departures.

Such airports would be required to collect spent aircraft deicing fluid (ADF) and treat the wastewater. They may either treat the wastewater on-site or send it to an off-site treatment contractor or publicly owned treatment works. Some airports would be required to reduce the amount of ammonia discharged from urea-based airfield pavement deicers or use more environmentally friendly airfield deicers that do not contain urea.

Summary of Proposed Airport Deicing Effluent Limitation Guidelines and Standards

Regulatory Level

Technology Basis

Technical Components

Airports >1,000 Annual Jet Departures and >=10,000 Annual Departures

Airports >1,000 Annual Jet Departures and <10,000 Annual Departures

Best Available Technology Economically Achievable (BAT)

1. 60% or 20% Aircraft Deicing Fluid (ADF) capture
2. Biological treatment
3. Pavement deicer product substitution

1. Capture 60% of available ADF (for airports having >=460,00 gal. ADF usage) or capture 20% (for airports <460,000 gal. ADF usage)
2. Treat wastewater to meet effluent limit for chemical oxygen demand (COD)
3. Certify use of non-urea-based pavement deicers
or
Meet effluent limit for ammonia

1. Certify use of non-urea-based pavement deicers
or
Meet effluent limit for ammonia

New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)

1. 60% ADF capture
2. Biological treatment
3. Pavement deicer product substitution

1. Capture 60% of available ADF
2. Treat wastewater to meet effluent limit for chemical oxygen demand (COD)
3. Certify use of non-urea-based pavement deicers
or
Meet effluent limit for ammonia

1. Certify use of non-urea-based pavement deicers
or
Meet effluent limit for ammonia

Note: All references to ADF are for normalized ADF, which is ADF less any water added by the manufacturer or customer before ADF application

Although EPA Administrator signed the notice on August 17, 2009, it has not yet been published in the Federal Register.  The public comment period on the regulations will run for 120 days after publication in the Federal Register.

D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals Decides Against Challenge to East Coast Airspace Redesign

In a per curiam Abbreviated Disposition that will not be published, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit summarily denied 12 separately-filed petitions for review that questioned the legality of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Environmental Impact Statement for its East Coast Airspace Redesign. The matter, Rockland County v. Federal Aviation Administration, brought 12 lawsuits together that represented a multitude of petitioners from Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. The Court kicked all of the citizens’ complaints about the effect the Airspace Redesign would have on their environment to the curb, deferring to the FAA’s analysis.

The Court reached this conclusion without addressing many of the arguments that the Petitioners presented in their briefs and at oral argument. First, with respect to Petitioners’ argument that the EIS violated the National Environmental Policy Act, the court simply stated that it is deferring to the FAA’s reasoning that they did everything they needed to do. Not mentioned in the Court’s cursory and truncated analysis is the fact that the FAA has said that it will not implement the Night Routing part of the EIS’ “Preferred Alternative,” and the effect that failure will have on the environmental impacts of the Airspace Redesign.

Second, the Court also deferred to the FAA in deciding that the EIS sufficiently took into account the state and local parks and parklands that would be affected by the Airspace Redesign. The Court, states that the Petitioners should have engaged in a “battle of the experts” and should have “impugn[ed] the agency’s screening methodology.” Disposition, p.8. In most cases, impugning an agency’s methodology is looked upon in great disfavor by a court.

Finally, the Court decided that the Airspace Redesign fell within the de minimis exception of the Clean Air Act, thereby releasing the FAA from any requirement to perform any type of analysis as to the impact the project will have on the surrounding area’s air quality programs. The Court admitted that the FAA did not follow the procedures set forth by the EPA in 40 CFR 93.153, but the “fuel burn analysis” that the FAA did create was sufficient. This was true, the Court concluded, despite the fact that the “fuel burn analysis” was devoid of any mention of criteria pollutants or indirect emissions as required by EPA’s regulation 40 CFR 93.153. The Court went on to hold that any error that the FAA committed in not following the required air quality procedures was harmless error.

It is obvious why the Court does not want this decision published. It is rudimentary and lacking in analysis of many of the arguments presented by the Petitioners. Moreover, it is cursory in statements of law and fact. For example, on p. 10 of the Disposition, in a footnote, the court states:

The petitioners also argue that the fuel burn analysis failed to show the redesign will reduce emissions in all relevant nonattainment and maintenance areas, see 40 C.F.R. 93.153(b), but that argument is not properly before us because the petitioners failed to raise it until their reply brief, Sitka Sound Seafoods, Inc. v. NLRB, 206 F.3d 1175, 1181 (D.C. Cir. 2000).

In fact, the Petitioners had raised that issue in their opening brief, not once, but twice. See, Petitioners’ Joint Brief, pp. 88 and 93.

In the end, it is sad to see that a Court that prides itself on having many of its members become Supreme Court Justices, hide behind a per curiam decision that is so superficial and so careless. The Petitioners now have 45 days to decide whether to seek a rehearing or a rehearing en banc.

Other Articles on the subject:

Other posts on this blog about the Airspace Redesign:

EPA Finally Issues Endangerment Finding for Six Greenhouse Gases, Including Carbon Dioxide

Over two years ago, on April 2, 2007, the Supreme Court in Massachusetts v. EPA, 549 U.S. 497 (2007), directed the EPA Administrator to determine whether or not emissions of greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare, or whether the science is too uncertain to make a reasoned decision.  Finally, after two years and much hand-wringing, EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson issued her proposed finding that carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride may endanger public health or welfare.

In actuality, the EPA proposed two findings:  (1) an endangerment finding, that the six GHG endanger public health and welfare; and (2) a “cause and contribute finding” that the combined emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and hydrofluorocarbons from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence add to the threat of climate change.

EPA characterizes its proposed Endangerment Finding as follows:

This is not a close case in which the magnitude of the harm is small and the probability great, or the magnitude large and the probability small. In both magnitude and probability, climate change is an enormous problem. The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.

The EPA, however, was careful to walk a fine line between complying with the dictates of Massachusetts and actually regulating GHG.  While this proposed rule does not actually regulate GHG,  it does propose defining greenhouse gases as “air pollutants” under the Clean Air Act. EPA proposes defining the six GHG as a single pollutant, rather the defining them individually - similar to the approach the EPA took with ozone years ago. EPA explained its decision as follows:

It is the Administrator’s judgment that this collective approach for the contribution test is most consistent with the treatment of greenhouse gases by those studying climate change science and policy, where it has become common practice to evaluate greenhouse gases on a collective CO2-equivalent basis

Although the EPA usually issues emission control standards concurrently with an endangerment finding, in this case, the EPA indicated that the emission standards would be issued “several months from now.”   This bifurcation of the normal process has been taken by observers to mean that these rules are meant to goad the Congress into action, rather than a serious proposal that EPA regulate GHG.  Indeed, the EPA’s Press Release on the Endangerment finding specifically stated that “[n]otwithstanding this required regulatory process, both President Obama and Administrator Jackson have repeatedly indicated their preference for comprehensive legislation to address this issue and create the framework for a clean energy economy.”

And Congressional leadership seems ready to oblige.  Rep. Edward Markey (D.Mass.), Chair of the Energy and Environment Subcommittee, had this to say about the EPA’s Endangerment Ruling:

This decision is a game-changer. It is now no longer a choice between doing a bill or doing nothing. It is now a choice between regulation and legislation. EPA will have to act if Congress does not act.

Markey and Rep. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) have introduced the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES) to set up a system for reducing emissions from all sources and creating a financial incentive for companies to stay within emission limits.   See, “U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee Releases Draft Climate Change Act,” posted April 2, 2009.  Waxman wants to pass the bill from his Energy and Commerce Committee by the end of May, but its fate is uncertain in the Senate.

Aircraft and other aviation sources seem to have received a pass with respect to these regulations:

EPA has received a petition under the Act to consider the regulation of 64 aircraft emissions (water vapor and NOx) that lead to formation of contrails (in addition to aircraft greenhouse gas emissions), and EPA plans to evaluate this issue further. At this time, the Administrator is not proposing to include aircraft-related contrails or emissions that are not greenhouse gases within the definition of air pollution for purposes of section 202(a).

This does not mean, however, that once the emission control standards are promulgated (if they are promulgated), aviation sources will not also be regulated.  Likewise, the Waxman-Markey bill may affect aviation sources as well.

A 60-day comment period will follow publication of the proposed rule in Federal Register, which has not yet occurred.  There will be public hearings in Arlington, Virginia, and Seattle, Washington in May, 2009.   Click on Continue Reading at the bottom of this post for details about written comments and public hearings.

Previous posts on this subject:

Written Comments

Written comments on the proposed finding (Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0171) may be submitted by using the following instructions:

Written comments should reference Docket ID No.  EPA-HQ-OAR-2009-0171.

Public Hearings

EPA has proposed two public hearings for these proposed findings.  EPA has requested those who wish to attend or give public comments, to register on-line in advance of the hearing.

EPA Resources

 

EPA Proposes National Reporting Rules for Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

On March 10, 2009, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued a news release proposing the first comprehensive national system for reporting emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases produced by major sources in the United States.  Although the EPA has yet determine whether greenhouse gases, such carbon dioxide, are "pollutants" under the Clean Air Act, the EPA has taken this step to gather "comprehensive and accurate data about the production of greenhouse gases."

The EPA stated that the new reporting requirements would apply to suppliers of fossil fuel and industrial chemicals, manufacturers of motor vehicles and engines, as well as large direct emitters of greenhouse gases with emissions equal to or greater than a threshold of 25,000 metric tons per year.  The EPA estimates that it will affect approximately 13,00 facilities, which account for about 85% to 90% of greenhouse gases emitted in the United States.  For a listing of the various industries that EPA believes will be affected, see the end of this post.

In order to differentiate it from the mandatory greenhouse gas reporting programs developed by states and regional programs, the EPA will require automobile, truck and engine manufacturers to report emissions from the engines they produce.  The first annual report would be submitted to EPA in 2011 for the calendar year 2010, except for vehicle and engine manufacturers, which would begin reporting for model year 2011.

The proposed rule will be open for public comment for 60 after publication in the Federal Register, which has not yet occurred.  Two public hearings will be held during the comment period.

The Proposed Rule:

Information regarding the public hearing:

Other Information regarding the Proposed Rule:

Table of Emission Source Categories Affected.  For a more complete list, please see Table 1 "Examples of Affected Entities by Category" in the Preamble to the rule.

Sector Reporters
Electricity Generation Power Plants
Transportation Vehicle and Engine Manufacturers
Industrial All large industrial emitters, including those in the following industries:
  Metals Iron and Steel, Aluminum, Magnesium, Ferroalloy, Zinc, and Lead
  Minerals Cement, Lime, Glass, Silicon Carbide, Pulp and Paper
  Chemicals HCFC-22, Ammonia, Nitric Acid, Adipic Acid, SF6 from Electrical Equipment, Hydrogen, Petrochemicals, Titanium Dioxide, Soda Ash, Phosphoric Acid, Electronics
  Oil and Gas Components of oil and gas systems (e.g., Refineries), Underground coal mining
Other Landfills, Wastewater Treatment, Ethanol, Food Processing
Agriculture Manure Management
Upstream Suppliers Petroleum Refineries, Gas Processors, Natural Gas Distribution Companies, Coal Mines, Importers, Industrial Gases (e.g., HFCs, N2O, PFCs, CO2)

 

D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals Denies Petition for Review of FAA's "Presumed to Conform" Rule

On February 3, 2009, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit denied a petition for review of the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) “presumed to conform rule.”  72 Fed.Reg. 41565 (July 30, 2007).  

Under the “presumed to conform rule” the FAA can avoid its obligation under the Clean Air Act to assure that its projects “conform to an implementation plan after it has been approved or promulgated under section 7410" of the Clean Air Act.  42 U.S.C. 7506(c).  The FAA used its presumed to conform rule as one of the justifications for its failure to perform a conformity determination in the East Coast airspace redesign.

Although the Court found that the Petitioners did not have standing to bring the petition for review, the petition was successful in at least a couple regards.  First, the decision was based on the predicate issue of standing, and did not reach the merits of the Petitioners’ argument that the FAA had not complied with federal law in the promulgation of its presumed to conform rule.  Thus, that argument may be raised by the Petitioners in the East Coast airspace redesign litigation now pending before the D.C. Circuit.

Second, by bringing this case, Petitioners exhausted their legal remedies with respect to a "facial" challenge to the FAA's presumed to conform rule.  The opinion in this case leaves the validity of the FAA’s presumed to conform rule on the table, ripe for the court’s consideration in the airspace redesign litigation.

That being said, the court’s opinion is not without error.  For example, the court states that the “Petitioners challenge two recent FAA actions in which the FAA altered the air traffic control activities at airports . . .” Opinion, p.4.  However, that, in fact, is not the case.  As stated in the Petitioners’ brief, the issue was whether the FAA followed the rules set out by the EPA in 40 CFR 93.153 in promulgating its presumed to conform rule.  By confusing the Petitioners’ facial challenge of the FAA’s presumed to conform rule for an “as applied” challenge, the court mistakenly applied incorrect facts and law to the matter that resulted in error in the outcome.

You can read the pleadings in this matter right here:

In addition, the EPA is revising the regulations governing conformity. They expect to issue new regulations in early 2009. A group of cities and concerned companies filed comments on the EPA’s proposed revisions and asked the EPA to eliminate the “presumed to conform” rule from the regulations.

Other blog posts on this topic: